Financial advice for uncertain times

Vanguard advises stock investors to avoid panic.

1. Market timing is a losing strategy.

You may be thinking you should sell now and get back into stocks later when the market "settles down" and the economy starts to recover. But this approach—called market timing—can lead to disappointing returns. In effect, it puts you at risk of selling low and buying high.

2: Investors have been rewarded for taking risk.

The steep and sudden stock market drops we've seen recently are certainly unsettling and may have done serious damage to your portfolio. But this very risk is why, over the long term, stocks have outperformed bonds or cash investments. "To take the risk of investing in stocks, people have to see a higher return potential than they would get from a typically safer asset," said Mr. Bennyhoff. "Taking risk isn't always rewarded in the short term. But, historically, risk has generally been rewarded over the long term in the form of higher average returns."

3: Playing it "safe" can lead to a shortfall.

Right about now, fleeing stocks for the safety of U.S. Treasury bills or an FDIC-insured certificate of deposit seems very appealing. For your short-term financial needs, these cash investments can be good choices. But, they may not be suitable for your long-term goals—like saving for a comfortable retirement—because the returns are likely to be too low.

Remember, your investments will need to outpace inflation over time, otherwise you'll lose purchasing power. Historically, it's been stocks that have helped investors compensate for inflation by delivering higher average annual returns than cash investments or bonds.

4: Emotional decisions often lead to regrets.

In times of market turmoil, it's difficult to take a long-term view and resist the urge to react to the latest big swing in the financial markets. Our instincts tell us we have to do something now. But Mr. Bennyhoff suggests staying calm can help you avoid making moves you later regret.

"Generally speaking, it tends to be a very bad idea to make emotional decisions in times that are already emotionally charged," he said. "If the market had a bad day yesterday and you come in today and sell, that doesn't make up for yesterday's losses. Actually, what you're doing is just capturing your losses."

Read the entire article at
http://www.vanguard.com/us/VanguardViewsArticlePublic?ArticleJSP=/freshness/News_and_Views/news_ALL_reaction_10092008_ALL.jsp

Nobel Prize

Paul Krugman was awarded the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics this morning. To the public, the Princeton economist may be best known for his New York Times commentary. To economists, he is best known for his important insights and contributions in International Trade theory.

From the Nobel Prize press release:

"How are we affected by globalization? What are the effects of free trade? Why do increasing numbers of people flock to large cities, while rural areas become depopulated?

"These questions cannot be answered without a theoretical foundation. For a long time, the analysis of foreign trade had been based on a well-established theory which explained why some countries export certain goods and import others. After World War II, however, it became increasingly obvious that important trade patterns did not quite correspond with that theory. In 1979, the US economist Paul Krugman proposed a new model which provided a better explanation for the observed patterns.

"In later research, Krugman has shown that the model he initially developed for international trade could also be used to clarify key issues in economic geography. In the context of both foreign trade and economic geography, the objective is to explain what goods are produced where. Theories of economic geography also attempt to specify the forces whereby labor and capital become located in certain places and not others."

Financial Crisis info

Looking for good explanations of recent events in the Financial markets? Try these resources:


The F.A.Q.’s of Lehman and A.I.G.
By Douglas W. Diamond and Anil K. Kashyap
on the Freakonomics blog

"Why did these things happen?

The common denominator in all three cases [Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, Lehman, AIG] was the ability of the firms to secure financing. The reasons, though, differed in each case."

"Fannie and Freddie were weakly supervised and strayed from the core mission. They began using their subsidized financing to buy mortgage-backed securities which were backed by pools of mortgages that did not meet their usual standards. Over the last year, it became clear that their thin capital was not enough to cover the losses on these subprime mortgages. The massive amount of diffusely held debt would have caused collapses everywhere if it was defaulted upon; so the Treasury announced that it would explicitly guarantee the debt."

"Lehman’s demise came when it could not even keep borrowing. Lehman was rolling over at least $100 billion a month to finance its investments in real estate, bonds, stocks, and financial assets."
"Why did the financing dry up? For months, short-sellers were convinced that Lehman’s real-estate losses were bigger than it had acknowledged. As more bad news about the real estate market emerged, including the losses at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, this view spread."

"A.I.G. had to raise money because it had written $57 billion of insurance contracts whose payouts depended on the losses incurred on subprime real-estate related investments. While its core insurance businesses and other subsidiaries (such as its large aircraft-leasing operation) were doing fine, these contracts, called credit default swaps (C.D.S.’s), were hemorrhaging. "

read more at: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/diamond-and-kashyap-on-the-recent-financial-upheavals/

A Slate magazine article explains some basic terms

"Central bank, reserve bank: A country's central bank maintains the stability of its national currency. In the United States, the Federal Reserve functions as the central bank and acts as a last-resort lender to failing financial institutions. The Fed was created in 1913 to provide financial stability in response to the Panic of 1907.

Commercial bank: A commercial bank, also known as a business bank, takes deposits and gives loans, mostly to corporations. After the Great Depression, Congress required that commercial and investment banks be separate with the Glass-Steagall Act; that restriction no longer applies today. Bank of America is currently the largest commercial bank in the United States.

Investment bank: An investment bank raises money by selling securities to companies and to the government. They also provide advice to corporations about mergers and buyouts. With Lehman Bros. and Merrill Lynch out of the picture, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the two largest investment banks in the United States."

see more definitions at http://www.slate.com/id/2200410/


Public radio's This American Life broadcast a special episode called "The Giant Pool of Money" which is the best and most accessible explanation I've heard.

"The thing that got me interested in all this was something called a
NINA loan. Back when the housing crisis was still a housing bubble. A guy on the
phone told me that a NINA loan stands for No Income, No Asset, as in, someone will
lend you a bunch of money without first checking if you have any income or any
assets. And it was an official, loan product. Like, you could walk into a mortgage
broker’s office and they would say, well, we can give you a 30 year fixed rate, or we
could put you in a NINA. He said there were lots of loans like this, where the bank
didn’t actually check your income, which I found confusing. It turns out even the
people who got them found them confusing. For example, a guy I met named
Clarence Nathan. He worked 3 part time, not very steady jobs, and made a total of
roughly 45 thousand dollars a year roughly. He got himself into trouble and needed
money, so he took out a loan against his house. A big one."

You can hear it (or read a transcript) at their website: http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242

Can learning about the Federal Budget be fun?

Budget Hero from American Public Radio's Marketplace lets students adjust spending and taxes in a colorful interactive budget game. It's available free at
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/features/budget_hero/

Inside Michigan Education Interview

Inside Michigan Education interviewed MCEE President David Dieterle Tuesday August 26 about the role and goals of the Michigan Council on Economic Education. You can hear the podcast at www.insidemieducation.com.

Another Price Floor example

One more lesson on price floors.

http://www.izzit.org/events/index.php

Going Oranic- What's It Really Cost?

Is going organic a good thing? Here is a lesson for students to explore the issue.


http://www.izzit.org/events/index.php

Price Floors Really Do Exist- Just Ask Congress

Here is the link to an editorial from yesterday's Wall Street Journal (Wed., May 14) on the new farm bill. It can serve as an excellent discussion piece on the role of price floors and their use by government.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121072321976990127.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

Dolphin Teeth for Money? Why not!

Here is a fun lesson illustrating money can be anything acceptable by society.

Shrinking Dollar Meets its Match in Dolphin Teeth

http://www.izzit.org/events/article.php?ID=657

What Do the Economists Think?

Interesting article in May 9 Wall Street Journal. Most economists surveyed believe food and fuel price rises are primarily caused by good ol supply and demand (I have heard of those somewhere!). According to the economists, the main culprit; increased global demand led by China and India, both relatively new (and growing) components of the global economy.

The survey could make for an interesting classroom discussion on market forces and and the power they carry, even in a global economy.

You can view the full survey at WSJ.com/Economist

Should We Pay Students for Grades?

Here is a lesson truly focused on the notion that people respond to incentives in predictable ways. This time its the students. Should we pay students for good grades? It's one thing for mom and dad, but what about the school system?


http://www.izzit.org/events/article.php?ID=653

Congress and the Dollar?

The following article was in this past weekend's Wall Street Journal. This might make for an interesting classroom discussion:


"We cannot stand idly by. . ." when stated by an elected official usually infers a future action. What role should Congress play in the value of the dollar?


"Republicans Seek Hearings on Dollar's Fall
By HENRY J. PULIZZI
May 3, 2008; Page A4

Top Republican lawmakers are calling for congressional hearings on the dollar's decline, including how the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts have pushed the greenback lower and commodity prices higher.

"We cannot stand idly by while the dollar's value continues to plummet, pushing up food and energy prices and lowering the American people's standard of living," the lawmakers said in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.).

The letter, dated May 1, was signed by House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, House Republican Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri and Senate Republican Whip Jon Kyl of Arizona. (Read the full test of the letter.)

The climb of oil and food prices has sparked a debate on Capitol Hill, with both Democrats and Republicans looking to address the strain on consumers. The hearings would focus on the dollar's role in fueling higher prices. This year, the dollar is down 5.3% against the euro and 5.4% versus the yen.

The U.S. currency contributes to rising energy prices because oil is priced in dollars. It also leads some investors to buy commodities to protect against the threat of inflation.

The GOP lawmakers said the hearings should focus on the impact of the Fed's rate cuts, the threat of potential tax increases on investment, the effect of trade policy on exports, and the potential for federal policies to discourage bringing new oil supplies online."

Corn Ethanol Loses More Support (WSJ, May 3-4)

Article for discussion in the classroom.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120977546363664225.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Another example that all choices have consequences (this time unintended ones) that lie in the future even when the motives are well intentioned.

First car buying lesson

Want an article on buying one's first car? Check out this lesson from izzit.


http://www.izzit.org/events/index.php

Soup Kitchens Beware!

Economic principle #6- All choices have consequences that lie in the future.

In the March 29th Economist, in an article on parenthood ("The joys of parenthood") another classic case of unintended consequences of the actions by politicians. This time it was a county in Virginia.

"... a county in Virginia recently banned giving food to the homeless unless it was prepared in a county-approved kitchen, to prevent food poisoning. Churches stopped ladling soup, and more homeless people were forced to scavenge in skips. This hurt not only the hungry, but also the volunteers who might have found satisfaction in helping them. The surest way to buy happiness. . . is to give some of your time and money away."

So, as I say on my website---- Give your life away.

Does Money Buy Happiness?

Here is a link to an interesting lesson--

http://www.izzit.org/events/index.php

Economic Education: Key to U.S. Prosperity

The following editorial was sent to me by one of our Board members, Ron Story. I personally heard Mr. Horne make these same remarks at the National Summit on Economic Literacy in Washington D.C. this past February. At that time I turned to my colleague, as he was turning my way, and our light bulbs went on simultaneously! Mr. Horne's comments was like a lightning bolt to our brains.

I have written in the past about the importance of solid economics teaching in our schools. But Mr. Horne nails why it is absolutely critical for our economics teaching to be needed, and quality. He (with an excellent quote from Alan Greenspan) makes the case precisely. As the carriers of the economic education torch, it is imperative for us to continue the fight against economic illiteracy.

Economic education: key to u.s prosperity

Tom Horne "My Turn"
The writer is Arizona's superintendent of public
instruction.

A mother called her son at college to tell him that he had overdrawn his bank account. "That's funny," he said: "I still have lots of checks left."
The story is apocryphal and exaggerated, but the problem is real: Many students have graduated from high school without the financial knowledge needed to cope with the modern world.
This shows in the current mortgage crisis, where people bought houses they could not afford, or failed to understand the mortgages that they signed. Not only they, but also the whole country, are now suffering as a result.
When we increased graduation requirements, there was a lot of coverage about the increase in the math and science requirements. Few noted that there was an increase in social studies requirements to three years: one year of World History, one year of American History, a half year of Government and a half year of Economics. The economics requirement will be crucial to help students' prepare for the financial decisions that they will be making as adults. But even more important is the basic knowledge of economics that our citizens must have if our country is to have a successful economic future.
This is because citizens who are not educated on how free-market economy works become vulnerable to the appeals of demagogic economic populists. In his recent book, Alan Greenspan has a good discussion of this problem:
" ... Market capitalism is a broad abstraction that doesn't always conform to untutored views of the way economies work. I presume markets are accepted because of their long history of creating wealth. Nonetheless, as people often complain to me: I don't know how it works, and it always seems to teeter on the edge of chaos. . . ' ".
"Economic populism imagines a more straightforward world, in which a conceptual framework seems a distraction from evident and pressing need. Its principles are simple. If there is unemployment then the government should hire the unemployed. If money is tight and interest rates as a consequence are high, the government should put a cap on rates or print more money. If imported goods are threatening jobs, stop the imports.'" .
Early in the 20th century, Argentina had a prosperous economy, similar to Europe's. But then an economic populist, Juan Peron, got elected and wrecked the economy, making Argentina a very poor country ever since.
This could happen in the United States.
Greenspan predicts that by 2030 our country's gross domestic product will be three-fourths higher than it is now. But he has four "wild cards" that could prevent this: (1) a nuclear detonation on U.S. soil; (2) a flu pandemic, (3} failure to agree on a non-inflationary solution to Medicare's physical imbalance and (4) a dramatic revival of protectionism.
An economically uneducated population is especially vulnerable to an economic populist who could ruin America's economy, as Peron ruined Argentina's economy.
In Arizona, we are doing our part now by requiring that all of our high-school graduates are educated in economics.

Michigan Business Index Falls

Check out this recent article from Crain's Detroit Business on Michigan's latest business index.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080403/REG/62515380/1069

Economic slowdown and the teachable moment

Is a recession good for economics instruction?

Several years ago when Michigan's economy was booming, it was hard to convince students that the business cycle was a real phenomenon and that it was worth spending time studying macroeconomic models to understand recession. The concept of unemployment seemed like a quaint historic vestige.

Today, unemployment, economic slowdown, financial crises, and recession are regularly in the headlines. This is certainly unfortunate for the economy and for Michigan's workers and families but it does raise the level of interest in macroeconomic issues. My students have been noticeably more interested in understanding the causes of economic slowdown and possible policy responses.

The news also brings regular examples of policy responses: tax rebates to stimulate consumer spending, interest rate cuts to stimulate investment. What more could an economist want?

Well, as a citizen, I prefer economic good times, but as a teacher I'll take advantage of our current doldrums to emphasize the importance of the understanding macroeconomics.

Presidential politics and economic education

“I am interested in doing what’s right and not the consequences.”

It was 5am, I was tossing and turning in a hotel room, and was more or less listening to the television I had left on during the night. As I laid there I had just turned to see what show was on as they were discussing the upcoming presidential election. Speaking was Senator Obama, when suddenly the scene shifted to a Democratic member of the US Congress, and “Super Delegate”, and blurted out the quote above.
While I laid there stunned, at the same time my mind was racing. I knew it! I have been teaching this for years! Now the proof. Our political leaders have no idea about the truth of the core economic principles. Not only are they idea less about the principles, they don’t care about the future and the consequences of their decisions.
In the past I have taught that generally, good economics makes bad politics (take note of the word “generally”, please). I rest my case.

“The issue of economics is an issue I probably don’t know as well as I should”

One more. Who said this? While each of my daughters, I am confident, have thought this sentiment at one time in their life, they are not the source of this particular quote above. During the same news program, several stories later. If this honest assessment of ones knowledge of economics is being made by one member of Congress, how many more of them have the same view? Of course for many of us in the economic education profession, this admission is only confirming what we have been stating for years. Who made this statement- Republican presidential frontrunner, Senator John McClain.

Two quotes from two different political parties and political viewpoints. Both quotes reveal the need for a sound understanding of the 6 Core Economic Principles by every voter. We need to hold our elected officials accountable, and we can best hold them accountable through our knowledge as an electorate. We cannot let them off the hook.

It's a presidential election year

It is a presidential election year. The discussions and debates have already begun. In this season of discussion, debate, each of us will do some soul searching to decide who has earned our vote to lead the nation for the next four years. So as we enter into this time for the activities that have made our country great (freedom of expression, meeting, speech, etc.) I would like to offer up one little thought. Regarding the economy, be sure as you enter into these discussions with your family, friends and colleagues on the economic issues making up this year’s election lexicon each of you are on the same page when it comes to the economic perspectives of your views and solutions.

By and large economic perspectives come in three varieties; macro or aggregate, micro or business, and the personal. The macro level is a discussion on the national and international economy. It is about globalization, the fiscal policy actions of Congress and the monetary actions of the Federal Reserve, NAFTA, trade with China, India, and developing countries. A macro discussion may also focus on the actions that protect (or destroy) our freedoms of choice, expression, and our liberty.

A micro level discussion focuses on what one purports to be best for businesses, markets (producers and/or consumers), and industries. A discussion on this level might be aimed at the economic environment to promote business, a quality education or an environment conducive to a quality of life like no other on the planet.

Personal level discussions may be the most highly emotionally charged of them all. These discussions become “I”, “me”, and “my” focused; my job, my family, my home, my state. This is the level most likely where the discussant becomes emotional, and no matter what is said never really hears the other person.
These are also the election discussions that must occur in the context of rational understanding, decision-making, and appreciation for the “where they are coming from” mindset of each discussant.

In actuality, I suppose these three levels of economic impact seem fairly obvious. Fact of the matter, I am mostly conveying here a notion that many of you reading this are already familiar, either consciously or subconsciously. So let’s just say this little comment is a review and reminder.

A final thought. These three different perspectives are not independent of each other (another keen sense of the obvious statement). The economic impact of policy decision-making that occurs at each perspective impacts the others. Life is not played out in a vacuum, and neither are policy decisions, from which political and economic discussions are bred.
Play the game. Participate fully in the process. Just remember we are all influenced by our incentives and our choices have consequences that lie in the future. Know the economic perspectives of your discussions so the value of understanding and enlightenment can be fully appreciated; by each of you.

Welcome to mceeblog

The basic tenets of economic education have a place in the discussions on many of today's events and issues. From alternative fuesl to food (my favorite subject!) economic education's basic principles, concepts, and ideas can provide all of us a foundation for the economic way of thinking about all of these topics.
This blog is our way to offer everyone an opportunity to participate in these discussions from the viewpoint of the six core economic principles, basic decision-making, and the 22 key economic concepts that bring clarity to many of these events.
Every one is invited to participate, respond, and voice an opinion or view. We only ask thar responses to the mcee blog be civil and coherent. It will consistently monitored and any comments not adhering to common decency and thought will be immediately deleted and the respondent ask not to return.
I look forward to opening discussions and receiving your comments.