Financial advice for uncertain times

Vanguard advises stock investors to avoid panic.

1. Market timing is a losing strategy.

You may be thinking you should sell now and get back into stocks later when the market "settles down" and the economy starts to recover. But this approach—called market timing—can lead to disappointing returns. In effect, it puts you at risk of selling low and buying high.

2: Investors have been rewarded for taking risk.

The steep and sudden stock market drops we've seen recently are certainly unsettling and may have done serious damage to your portfolio. But this very risk is why, over the long term, stocks have outperformed bonds or cash investments. "To take the risk of investing in stocks, people have to see a higher return potential than they would get from a typically safer asset," said Mr. Bennyhoff. "Taking risk isn't always rewarded in the short term. But, historically, risk has generally been rewarded over the long term in the form of higher average returns."

3: Playing it "safe" can lead to a shortfall.

Right about now, fleeing stocks for the safety of U.S. Treasury bills or an FDIC-insured certificate of deposit seems very appealing. For your short-term financial needs, these cash investments can be good choices. But, they may not be suitable for your long-term goals—like saving for a comfortable retirement—because the returns are likely to be too low.

Remember, your investments will need to outpace inflation over time, otherwise you'll lose purchasing power. Historically, it's been stocks that have helped investors compensate for inflation by delivering higher average annual returns than cash investments or bonds.

4: Emotional decisions often lead to regrets.

In times of market turmoil, it's difficult to take a long-term view and resist the urge to react to the latest big swing in the financial markets. Our instincts tell us we have to do something now. But Mr. Bennyhoff suggests staying calm can help you avoid making moves you later regret.

"Generally speaking, it tends to be a very bad idea to make emotional decisions in times that are already emotionally charged," he said. "If the market had a bad day yesterday and you come in today and sell, that doesn't make up for yesterday's losses. Actually, what you're doing is just capturing your losses."

Read the entire article at
http://www.vanguard.com/us/VanguardViewsArticlePublic?ArticleJSP=/freshness/News_and_Views/news_ALL_reaction_10092008_ALL.jsp

Nobel Prize

Paul Krugman was awarded the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics this morning. To the public, the Princeton economist may be best known for his New York Times commentary. To economists, he is best known for his important insights and contributions in International Trade theory.

From the Nobel Prize press release:

"How are we affected by globalization? What are the effects of free trade? Why do increasing numbers of people flock to large cities, while rural areas become depopulated?

"These questions cannot be answered without a theoretical foundation. For a long time, the analysis of foreign trade had been based on a well-established theory which explained why some countries export certain goods and import others. After World War II, however, it became increasingly obvious that important trade patterns did not quite correspond with that theory. In 1979, the US economist Paul Krugman proposed a new model which provided a better explanation for the observed patterns.

"In later research, Krugman has shown that the model he initially developed for international trade could also be used to clarify key issues in economic geography. In the context of both foreign trade and economic geography, the objective is to explain what goods are produced where. Theories of economic geography also attempt to specify the forces whereby labor and capital become located in certain places and not others."